Why Saudi Arabia and Iran Became Sworn Enemies

Saudi Arabia and Iran, two powerful neighbors, are fighting for supremacy in the region.

Religious contradictions only exacerbate their confrontation, which is not one dozen years old. The countries are committed to two different trends in Islam - Iran mainly consists of Shiites, and Saudi Arabia is considered one of the leaders of Sunni Islam.

The essence of religious differences becomes clear if you look at the map of the Middle East, where the majority of the population are Sunnis or Shiites. Many of them consider Saudi Arabia or Iran to be their spiritual guideline.

Saudi Arabia, in the territory of which Islam was born, historically considered itself the leader of the Islamic world.

But in 1979, an Islamic revolution took place in Iran, as a result of which a theocratic state appeared in the region, the main purpose of which was to export this model to other countries.

Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran have escalated particularly strongly over the past 15 years.

In 2003, a US-led coalition overthrew Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, a Sunni Arab and one of Iran’s main enemies. As a result, there was no counterweight to the influence of Iran in Iraq, which has been growing steadily since then.

Fast forward to 2011, when a wave of protests swept the so-called “Arab Spring” and caused political instability in the region. Iran and Saudi Arabia took advantage of these protests to promote their influence, particularly in Syria, Bahrain and Yemen. This further strengthened mutual distrust.

Iran’s opponents argue that Tehran is striving to become the leading force in the region in order to gain control over territory stretching from Iran to the Mediterranean Sea.

Iranian Ayatollah Khamenei and Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman represent two branches of Islam | Reuters / EPA

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Why did the situation suddenly worsen?

The strategic confrontation is intensifying because Iran is winning the regional struggle in many respects.

In Syria, thanks to the support of Iran (and Russia), President Bashar al-Assad has succeeded in crushing most of the opposition, which is supported by Saudi Arabia.

The Saudis are desperate to restrain Iran’s growing influence. The militaristic adventurism of the young and impulsive Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto leader of the state, exacerbates regional tensions.

He is waging war on rebels from neighboring Yemen and partially does this to nullify Iran’s alleged influence there. However, three years later, this adventure requires too much money.

Meanwhile, in Lebanon, according to many observers, the Saudis are forcing the prime minister to resign in order to destabilize a country in which Iran’s Shiite Hezbollah group plays a leading role in politics and controls the military.

There are also external players. Saudi Arabia was given confidence by the support of the Donald Trump administration, and Israel, which considers Iran a deadly threat, in  a  sense supports the efforts of the Saudis to contain Iran.

Israel fears that the forces of Iran-controlled militants in Syria will approach the country's border.

Israel and Saudi Arabia most actively opposed the 2015 international agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear program. They argued that the required measures were not enough, and if necessary Iran would be able to obtain nuclear weapons .

Saudi Arabia boosted confidence by Donald Trump administration | EPA

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Who is friends with whom in the region?

The strategic map of the Middle East shows the separation of Sunnis and Shiites.

Among the allies of Saudi Arabia, one can distinguish Sunni countries - the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, as well as Egypt and Jordan.

Ally of Iran is the government of Syria. In the armed confrontation, Iran-supported Shiite groups, including the Hezbollah group, played a significant role in the fight against opposition forces, mainly Sunnis.

The Iraqi government, consisting mainly of Shiites, is also a close ally of Iran.

At the same time, paradoxically, it maintains close ties with Washington, which is assisting Iraq in the fight against the Islamic State jihadist group (the organization is banned in Russia).

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Cold war equivalent

In many ways, this is the regional equivalent of the Cold War between the USA and the USSR, which lasted for many years.

Iran and Saudi Arabia are not fighting with each other, but the forces they support are involved in armed conflicts in the region.

Syria is an obvious example. In Yemen, Saudi Arabia accused Iran of providing ballistic missiles to the Hussite group. Missiles were launched on the territory of Saudi Arabia. This case toughened the war of words between the two countries.

Iran is also accused of regularly demonstrating strength in the strategically important parts of the Persian Gulf, through which ships with Saudi oil go.

Yemen is one of several states where military conflict adds fuel to the fire of Iran-Saudi divisions | Reuters

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Is war waiting for us?

So far, Riyadh and Tehran have fought at the hands of intermediaries. None of the two powers is ready for a direct conflict with the other. However, an attack by the Hussites aimed at the capital, or, as recently, at a large industrial facility in Saudi Arabia, can upset this balance.

After the Hussite attacks on the infrastructure of Saudi Arabia in the confrontation between Tehran and  Riyadh , a new dimension appeared. As in the case of the Persian Gulf, where the two countries have a sea border, exacerbation of tension can lead to a much wider and more comprehensive conflict.

For the US and Western countries, free navigation in the Persian Gulf is extremely important, therefore any conflict that threatens to block the Gulf, which is important for international trade, is likely to involve the US military.

The United States and its allies have long considered Iran a destabilizing force in the Middle East. Saudi authorities increasingly see him as an existential threat, and the Crown Prince, apparently, is ready to do everything necessary to stop the growth of Tehran’s influence.

The attack on oil facilities revealed the vulnerability of Saudi Arabia. But if the war begins, it will be more a result of a combination of circumstances than of someone else's plans.

However, the activity of the Saudis themselves, which is partly encouraged by the apparent lack of clear goals for the Trump administration in the region, certainly adds to the atmosphere of tension.