On Saturday Nov. 4, guests at Riyadh’s Ritz Carlton were notified by the opulent hotel that: “Due to unforeseen booking by local authorities which requires an elevated level of security, we are unable to accommodate guests ... until normal operations are restored.”
The purge was already under
way. Within hours security forces had rounded up dozens of members of Saudi
Arabia’s political and business elite, mostly in the capital and the coastal
city of Jeddah. Among them were 11 princes as well as ministers and wealthy
tycoons.
Some were invited to meetings
where they were detained. Others were arrested at their homes and flown to
Riyadh or driven to the Ritz Carlton, which has been turned into a temporary
prison.
The detainees were allowed a
single, brief phone call home, a person familiar with the arrests told Reuters.
“They don’t receive calls and
are kept under tight security. No one can go in or out,” the insider said. “It
is obvious that there was a lot of preparation for it.”
The purge was ordered by
32-year-old Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Officially next in line to the
throne to his father, King Salman, he is now in effect running the country
which he has said he will transform into a modern state.
To do that - and in an
attempt to shore up his own power - he has decided to go after the Saudi elite,
including some members of the royal family, on accusations such as taking
bribes and inflating the cost of business projects. Those arrested could not be
reached for comment.
At stake is political
stability in the world’s largest oil producer. The Crown Prince’s ability to
rule unchallenged depends on whether the purge is successful.
The Crown Prince believes
that unless the country changes, the economy will sink into a crisis that could
fan unrest. That could threaten the royal family and weaken the country in its
regional rivalry with Iran.
DE
FACTO RULER
Prince Mohammed was appointed
defense minister in 2015 when King Salman became monarch. In June, the King
named him heir to the throne, pushing aside his older cousin Mohammed bin
Nayef, a veteran head of the security apparatus. The royal family acquiesced
and by September the Crown Prince had rounded up and jailed religious and
intellectual opponents.
The latest detentions are intended
to help him push through reforms that promise the greatest change since the
reign of King Abdulaziz, founder of the current Saudi state in the 1930s.
That state has rested on an enduring
accommodation between the royal family and the Wahhabist clerics who control
the hardline version of Islam that originated in Saudi Arabia.
The ruling family promised to give
Saudis comfortable lives and a share of the country’s oil wealth. In return,
their subjects have offered political submission and promised to follow the
country’s strict religious and social codes.
King Abdulaziz, who was also known
as Ibn Saud, died in 1953. Since then, Saudi Arabia has been run by the king
and below him there has been a group of princes, none of them strong enough to
impose his will against the wishes of the others.
Decisions have mostly come through
consensus. That arrangement has meant social and political change has been
glacial although it has also kept the kingdom stable.
But in moves that position Prince
Mohammed as the new Ibn Saud, the Crown Prince is tearing down pillars of rule
that had been eroding under the weight of population growth and low oil prices.
Consensus has been replaced by what
critics say is one-man rule, opposed by some princes although they would not
risk saying so in public.
In the past few decades, every Saudi
king had one or two of his brothers, sons or nephews by his side advising and
sharing in governance. But Prince Mohammed has not appointed any of his
brothers or other close family to top positions, instead relying on a team of
advisers -- mainly Saudis though some are U.S.- or British-trained.
King Salman, 82, still has the last
word on everything. But he has delegated the running of the kingdom’s military,
security, economic, foreign and social affairs to Prince Mohammed. There has
been speculation for months, denied by court officials, that the king will soon
abdicate the throne to MbS.
Even the Crown Prince’s age is
remarkable. The last three kings have reached the throne aged 61, 80 and 79.
Prince Mohammed is effectively in charge at 32.
NO
GUARANTEE OF SUCCESS
Prince Mohammed says he offers a new
social contract: A state that functions better than the rigid bureaucracy of
the past, opportunities to have fun and an economy that will create jobs that
can last, whatever happens in oil markets.
In September he announced that Saudi
women will be given the right to drive. Just three weeks ago, during a
conference for investors at the same Ritz Carlton that now houses the targets
of his purge, he unveiled a plan for a $500-billion futuristic city where sexes
could mingle and robots outnumber humans.
The prince has also drawn up a
blueprint to wean Saudi Arabia off its dependence on oil and its subjects off
state subsidies and government jobs. The public listing of national oil company
Saudi Aramco, planned next year, is its centerpiece.
There are no guarantees the prince’s
ambitions will succeed.
Even some admirers ask whether his
reach exceeds his grasp. His top-down approach, brooking no opposition, could
scare off investors wanting assurances about rule of law and security. Without
huge investor support, he will struggle to meet the aspirations of Saudi youth.
War in Yemen, a dispute with the
Gulf emirate of Qatar and growing tension with Iran is a concern to investors
too.
It should help that Prince Mohammed,
following the example of Ibn Saud, sees the importance of forging a special
bond with the United States.
During a visit to Saudi Arabia in
May, U.S. President Donald Trump urged Riyadh to lead an alliance against Iran
and its attempt to cut a Shi‘ite axis through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
Soon afterwards, Saudi Arabia and
the United Arab Emirates blockaded Qatar, accusing its ruling Al Thani dynasty
of supporting Iran and Islamist terrorism. Trump gave his backing. After the
arrests of the past week, Trump tweeted support, saying those arrested had been
“milking their country for years”.
One insider close to the royal
family said the National Guard was unlikely to react strongly to Miteb’s
removal. He said there had been no resistance to the ousting of Mohammed bin
Nayef at the interior ministry and the National Guard would be no different.
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